/ walking bear:D / 財經筆記:隨機漫步的傻瓜

財經筆記:隨機漫步的傻瓜

2019-11-05 posted in [筆記]

黑天鵝效應的作者的另一本暢銷書,原書名 Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in Market

書中的第十三章 ,有個簡單的測試可以很好說明 路徑依賴。假設你擁有一幅當初以 20K 美元買進的畫,由於藝術品市場欣欣向榮,現在這幅畫在市場價值 40K。如果你手頭上沒有這幅畫,你會以目前的市價買進嗎?如果不會,那麼你就是死守自己所處的現狀。不肯按目前的市價買進,代表市價已經高於其真實的價值,留着它不放手,根本不合理。你所做的只是感情上的投資。不要跟自己手上的股票談戀愛

許多人死守自己的概念直到踏進墳墓,一連串的想法都源自第一個深植內心的觀念,這就是路徑依賴的信念。 . reply_count: 0 get_replies : 0 .

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wkliang

Clarke's Three Laws:

  • When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
  • The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
  • Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
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